Since the data in History_Numerai_13F-HR.xlsx had accumulated over time, I decided to run an analysis using generative AI.
  • To prevent the file from being identified as containing data related to Numerai GP LLC, I deleted the “History” sheet.
  • I also confirmed that the word “Numerai” does not appear anywhere in the Excel file.

Personally, I find that when the word “Numerai” is present, it tends to steer the analysis too much toward the distinctive nature of a fund powered by Numerai’s decentralized AI.

In Conclusion

  • Since the dataset did not contain the keyword “Numerai,” the analysis did not capture any of Numerai’s distinctive characteristics. Instead, the portfolio was interpreted as that of a growth-oriented, active, thematic hedge fund.
  • While the interpretation may have been retrospective, the relationship between macroeconomic indicators and the portfolio holdings was analyzed in a reasonably coherent manner.
  • I was particularly surprised by the Forward-Looking Insights, which included specific predictions about which stocks might see increased or decreased allocations.

Several sections of the Excel file appeared to be misread—see the red-highlighted areas below.

Additionally, I failed to clarify that the numerical values in the Excel file were denominated in USD.

For the next iteration, I plan to refine the dataset by removing unnecessary sheets, adding a description of 13F-HR to the prompt, and performing data cleansing to observe how the analysis evolves.


Prompt Used

Analyze the attached Excel file History_13F-HR.xlsx, which contains quarterly 13F-HR data from a hedge fund. The file includes individual sheets for each quarter from 2022-12-31 to 2025-06-30, and a consolidated sheet named “ALL” that aggregates all holdings. In the “ALL” sheet, rows represent securities (nameOfIssuer and CUSIP), and columns represent market values.


Please generate a comprehensive report covering:
- Portfolio trends by sector (e.g., Tech, Healthcare, Financials)
- Strategic shifts over time and correlation with macroeconomic factors (e.g., interest rate hikes, geopolitical risks)
- Fund characteristics: growth vs. value focus, active vs. passive style, and thematic concentration (e.g., AI, renewable energy)
- Risk management: diversification level and defensive stock ratio
- Comparative analysis with Berkshire Hathaway Inc. across all the above dimensions
- Forward-looking insights: forecast future portfolio directions based on historical trends, sector rotation patterns, thematic focus, and macro sensitivity


What Gork Said
Below is a comprehensive report analyzing the hedge fund's 13F-HR data from the provided Excel file, History_13F-HR.xlsx. The report addresses the requested dimensions: portfolio trends by sector, strategic shifts over time, fund characteristics, risk management, comparative analysis with Berkshire Hathaway Inc., and forward-looking insights. Due to the limitations of the data provided (e.g., no explicit sector classifications, limited macroeconomic context), I will make reasonable assumptions and inferences based on the available information, company names, and general knowledge of market trends up to August 24, 2025. Where necessary, I will note limitations and suggest how additional data could enhance the analysis.
Comprehensive Report on Hedge Fund 13F-HR Data Analysis1. Portfolio Trends by SectorTo analyze sector trends, I categorized the securities in the “ALL” sheet based on their nameOfIssuer using standard industry classifications (e.g., GICS sectors). The market values across quarters (columns 44926 to 45838, representing dates from 2022-12-31 to 2025-06-30) were aggregated to identify sector allocations. Below is a summary of key sector trends:
  • Technology (Tech):
    • Key Holdings: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Airbnb, Amazon, Arista Networks, Microsoft, NVIDIA, PayPal, Snowflake, ZoomInfo Technologies.
    • Trend: Technology consistently forms a significant portion of the portfolio, with holdings like NVIDIA (CUSIP: 67066G104) showing increased investment (e.g., 1,344,119 in 2023-06-30). The fund increased exposure to cloud computing (Snowflake, Cloudflare), AI-related firms (NVIDIA), and fintech (PayPal, Block/Square). This reflects a focus on high-growth tech subsectors.
    • Observation: Tech exposure grew from 2022-12-31 to 2025-06-30, particularly in AI-driven companies, aligning with the AI boom and cloud infrastructure demand.
  • Financials:
    • Key Holdings: Bank of Montreal, Bank of Nova Scotia, Comerica, First Horizon, KeyCorp, Morgan Stanley, U.S. Bancorp, Zions Bancorporation.
    • Trend: Financials show significant exposure, with large positions in regional banks like Comerica (5,567,925 in 2023-06-30) and Zions Bancorporation (9,440,311 in 2023-03-31). The fund maintained or increased stakes in banks during periods of market volatility, suggesting a contrarian approach to undervalued financials.
    • Observation: Financials exposure peaked in mid-2023, likely capitalizing on depressed valuations post-banking crises (e.g., Silicon Valley Bank collapse in March 2023), but moderated slightly by 2025 as interest rate pressures eased.
  • Healthcare:
    • Key Holdings: Align Technology, Amedisys, Baxter International, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Catalent, Elevance Health, Humana, Illumina, Teladoc Health.
    • Trend: Healthcare exposure is moderate but consistent, with a focus on medical devices (Baxter, Align Technology), biotech (Illumina), and telehealth (Teladoc). Investments like Teladoc (764,941 in 2023-06-30) suggest a bet on digital health innovation.
    • Observation: Healthcare allocations remained stable, with slight increases in biotech (Illumina) during 2024-2025, possibly reflecting optimism in genomics and personalized medicine.
  • Industrials:
    • Key Holdings: Alamo Group, Carlisle Companies, General Dynamics, Lockheed Martin, Oshkosh, Quanta Services, Textron.
    • Trend: Industrials show steady exposure, particularly in manufacturing (Alamo Group, Carlisle) and defense (Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics). Investments like Lockheed Martin (3,457,982 in 2025-03-31) increased during geopolitical tensions.
    • Observation: Industrials exposure grew slightly during 2023-2024, likely tied to defense spending amid geopolitical risks (e.g., Russia-Ukraine conflict, Middle East tensions).
  • Consumer Discretionary:
    • Key Holdings: Airbnb, AutoZone, Burlington Stores, Carnival Corp, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Crocs, DraftKings, Wynn Resorts.
    • Trend: Strong focus on travel and leisure (Airbnb, Carnival, Wynn Resorts) and specialty retail (Crocs, Burlington Stores). Carnival Corp’s holdings (e.g., 1,945,625 in 2024-06-30) reflect a recovery play post-COVID.
    • Observation: Consumer discretionary exposure increased in 2023-2024, capitalizing on reopening trends and consumer spending resilience, but tapered slightly by 2025 as inflation pressures persisted.
  • Energy and Materials:
    • Key Holdings: Archer Daniels Midland, Chevron, Fortuna Silver Mines, IAMGOLD, New Gold, Southern Copper, Vermilion Energy.
    • Trend: Energy and materials exposure is notable, particularly in mining (IAMGOLD, New Gold) and oil/gas (Vermilion Energy, Northern Oil and Gas). Holdings like IAMGOLD (2,147,897 in 2023-06-30) suggest a hedge against inflation via commodities.
    • Observation: Energy and materials allocations increased during 2022-2023, reflecting commodity price surges, but moderated by 2025 as energy prices stabilized.
  • Other Sectors:
    • Consumer Staples: Holdings like Coca-Cola Consolidated, Hormel Foods, and Smucker indicate a defensive tilt, with stable but smaller allocations.
    • Real Estate: Limited exposure (e.g., Camden Property Trust, Forestar Group) suggests minimal focus on real estate, likely due to interest rate sensitivity.
    • Utilities: Minor holdings (e.g., Black Hills Corp, American Water Works) indicate a defensive posture during volatile periods.
Key Insight: The portfolio is heavily weighted toward Technology (20-30%), Financials (15-25%), and Consumer Discretionary (15-20%), with moderate exposure to Healthcare (10-15%) and Industrials (10-15%). Energy and Materials (5-10%) serve as an inflation hedge, while Consumer Staples and Utilities (5-10%) provide defensive ballast.
2. Strategic Shifts Over Time and Macroeconomic CorrelationThe portfolio’s evolution across quarters reflects strategic adjustments in response to macroeconomic factors. Below are key shifts and their likely correlations:
  • 2022-12-31 to 2023-06-30 (Rising Interest Rates):
    • Shift: Increased allocations to Financials (e.g., Comerica, Zions Bancorporation) and Energy/Materials (e.g., IAMGOLD, Vermilion Energy). Reduced exposure to high-growth tech (e.g., smaller stakes in Snowflake, ZoomInfo).
    • Macro Correlation: The Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes in 2022-2023 pressured growth stocks (high P/E ratios) and favored value-oriented sectors like Financials and Energy. The fund likely capitalized on undervalued banks post-2023 banking crises and rising commodity prices amid inflation.
    • Evidence: Comerica’s value jumped from 1,128,562 (2022-12-31) to 5,567,925 (2023-06-30), and IAMGOLD increased from 1,927,002 to 2,147,897.
  • 2023-09-30 to 2024-06-30 (Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Recovery):
    • Shift: Increased Industrials (e.g., Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics) and Consumer Discretionary (e.g., Carnival, Airbnb) exposure. Tech allocations grew in AI-related stocks (e.g., NVIDIA, Arista Networks).
    • Macro Correlation: Heightened geopolitical risks (e.g., Russia-Ukraine, Middle East conflicts) boosted defense spending, favoring Industrials. Reopening economies post-COVID supported travel/leisure (Carnival, Wynn Resorts). The AI boom drove tech investments.
    • Evidence: Lockheed Martin’s value rose to 3,457,982 by 2025-03-31, and Carnival Corp increased to 1,945,625 in 2024-06-30. NVIDIA’s stake grew significantly by 2023-06-30 (1,344,119).
  • 2024-09-30 to 2025-06-30 (Stabilizing Rates, Inflation Moderation):
    • Shift: Moderated Financials exposure (e.g., reduced stakes in Zions Bancorporation) and increased Healthcare (e.g., Illumina, Humana) and Tech (e.g., Snowflake, Cloudflare). Maintained Consumer Discretionary strength.
    • Macro Correlation: As interest rates stabilized in 2024-2025 and inflation moderated, the fund shifted back toward growth-oriented sectors like Healthcare and Tech, anticipating innovation-driven returns. Consumer Discretionary remained strong due to sustained consumer spending.
    • Evidence: Illumina’s value increased to 3,193,469 in 2024-06-30, and Snowflake’s stake grew to 4,357,329 by 2025-03-31.
Key Insight: The fund dynamically adjusted its portfolio, rotating into Financials and Energy during high-inflation, rising-rate periods (2022-2023), then pivoting to Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, and Tech (AI focus) as geopolitical risks and economic recovery shaped markets. By 2025, a balanced approach emerged, emphasizing growth (Tech, Healthcare) and selective value plays.
3. Fund Characteristics
  • Growth vs. Value Focus:
    • Growth: The fund has a strong growth orientation, evident in heavy Tech (NVIDIA, Snowflake, Cloudflare) and Healthcare (Illumina, Teladoc) allocations. These companies typically have high P/E ratios and focus on innovation (AI, biotech, telehealth).
    • Value: Significant Financials (Comerica, Zions) and Energy (IAMGOLD, Vermilion) holdings suggest a value component, particularly in 2022-2023 when these sectors were undervalued.
    • Balance: The fund blends growth (60-70%) and value (30-40%), leaning toward growth in later quarters (2024-2025) as market conditions favored innovation-driven sectors.
  • Active vs. Passive Style:
    • Active: The fund’s frequent sector rotations (e.g., Financials in 2023, Tech in 2024-2025) and concentrated bets (e.g., Zions Bancorporation, NVIDIA) indicate an active management style. Significant changes in holdings (e.g., Tyson Foods from 272,282 in 2022-12-31 to 9,024,944 in 2023-06-30) reflect tactical adjustments.
    • Evidence: The portfolio’s dynamic shifts contrast with passive strategies, which maintain static index-like allocations.
  • Thematic Concentration:
    • AI and Cloud Computing: Investments in NVIDIA, Arista Networks, Snowflake, and Cloudflare highlight a strong AI and cloud infrastructure theme, aligning with the AI-driven market rally of 2023-2025.
    • Digital Health: Holdings like Teladoc, Illumina, and Health Catalyst reflect a focus on telehealth and genomics, capitalizing on healthcare digitization.
    • Reopening and Consumer Trends: Carnival, Airbnb, and Wynn Resorts indicate a bet on post-COVID travel and leisure recovery.
    • Commodities and Inflation Hedges: IAMGOLD, New Gold, and Vermilion Energy suggest a focus on commodities as an inflation hedge, particularly in 2022-2023.
Key Insight: The fund is actively managed with a growth-heavy tilt, emphasizing thematic investments in AI, digital health, and consumer recovery, balanced by value-oriented Financials and Energy positions.
4. Risk Management
  • Diversification Level:
    • Portfolio Size: The “ALL” sheet lists 459 unique securities across multiple sectors, indicating broad diversification.
    • Sector Concentration: Tech (20-30%), Financials (15-25%), and Consumer Discretionary (15-20%) dominate, but exposure to Healthcare, Industrials, Energy, and defensive sectors (Consumer Staples, Utilities) mitigates sector-specific risk.
    • Stock Concentration: Top holdings (e.g., Zions Bancorporation: 9,440,311 in 2023-03-31; Tyson Foods: 9,024,944 in 2023-06-30) represent significant bets, but the large number of holdings reduces single-stock risk.
    • Metric: A Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) approximation based on top holdings suggests moderate concentration (HHI ~0.05-0.1), indicating balanced diversification.
  • Defensive Stock Ratio:
    • Defensive Holdings: Consumer Staples (e.g., Hormel Foods, Smucker), Utilities (e.g., Black Hills Corp, American Water Works), and stable Financials (e.g., Bank of Montreal) constitute 10-15% of the portfolio.
    • Trend: Defensive allocations were higher in 2022-2023 (e.g., Hormel Foods: 5,856,029 in 2023-09-30) during high inflation and rate hikes, but decreased slightly by 2025 as growth sectors took precedence.
    • Ratio: Defensive stocks represent ~15% of the portfolio, providing a buffer against market volatility but not overly conservative.
Key Insight: The fund is well-diversified across sectors and stocks, with moderate concentration in top holdings. Defensive stocks provide stability, particularly during volatile periods (2022-2023), but the portfolio leans toward growth, accepting higher risk for potential returns.
5. Comparative Analysis with Berkshire Hathaway Inc.To compare the hedge fund with Berkshire Hathaway Inc., I rely on general knowledge of Berkshire’s 13F-HR filings and investment philosophy up to August 2025, as specific Berkshire data is not provided in the Excel file.
  • Portfolio Trends by Sector:
    • Hedge Fund: Heavy in Tech (AI, cloud), Financials (regional banks), and Consumer Discretionary (travel/leisure). Moderate Healthcare and Industrials exposure.
    • Berkshire Hathaway: Concentrated in Financials (e.g., American Express, Bank of America), Consumer Staples (e.g., Coca-Cola, Kraft Heinz), Energy (e.g., Occidental Petroleum), and Tech (e.g., Apple). Limited exposure to speculative tech (e.g., AI startups).
    • Comparison: Both emphasize Financials, but the hedge fund’s focus on regional banks (e.g., Zions, Comerica) contrasts with Berkshire’s preference for large-cap banks. The hedge fund’s AI and digital health bets (NVIDIA, Teladoc) are more speculative than Berkshire’s stable Tech (Apple). Berkshire’s Consumer Staples exposure is heavier, reflecting a defensive stance.
  • Strategic Shifts and Macro Correlation:
    • Hedge Fund: Actively rotates sectors (e.g., Financials in 2023, Tech in 2024-2025) in response to macro factors like interest rates and geopolitical risks.
    • Berkshire Hathaway: Maintains a long-term, buy-and-hold strategy with minimal sector rotation. Adjustments (e.g., reducing Apple in 2024, increasing Occidental) reflect valuation discipline rather than macro bets.
    • Comparison: The hedge fund is more tactical and macro-sensitive, while Berkshire’s shifts are driven by intrinsic value and long-term confidence, less responsive to short-term macro trends.
  • Fund Characteristics:
    • Hedge Fund: Growth-heavy (60-70%) with a value component, actively managed, thematic focus on AI, digital health, and consumer recovery.
    • Berkshire Hathaway: Value-focused, with a long-term, passive-leaning style. Thematic focus on stable cash flows (e.g., insurance, consumer goods) rather than emerging trends like AI.
    • Comparison: The hedge fund’s active, growth-oriented approach contrasts with Berkshire’s value-driven, buy-and-hold philosophy. The hedge fund’s thematic bets (AI, telehealth) are riskier than Berkshire’s stable, blue-chip focus.
  • Risk Management:
    • Hedge Fund: Broadly diversified (459 securities), moderate concentration in top holdings, ~15% defensive stocks.
    • Berkshire Hathaway: Less diversified (~40-50 securities), highly concentrated (e.g., Apple ~40% of portfolio in 2023), significant defensive exposure via Consumer Staples and insurance subsidiaries.
    • Comparison: The hedge fund’s broader diversification reduces single-stock risk compared to Berkshire’s concentrated portfolio. Both maintain defensive elements, but Berkshire’s are more structural (e.g., insurance cash flows).
Key Insight: The hedge fund is more dynamic, growth-focused, and macro-sensitive, with a diversified portfolio and thematic bets on AI and consumer trends. Berkshire Hathaway is value-driven, concentrated, and stable, prioritizing long-term cash flows over short-term trends.
6. Forward-Looking InsightsBased on historical trends, sector rotations, thematic focus, and macro sensitivity, the hedge fund’s future portfolio directions can be forecasted as follows:
  • Continued Tech Emphasis (AI and Cloud):
    • Rationale: The fund’s increasing stakes in NVIDIA, Arista Networks, and Snowflake align with the ongoing AI and cloud computing boom. As AI adoption accelerates (e.g., generative AI, enterprise solutions), the fund is likely to deepen investments in AI infrastructure (e.g., semiconductors, cloud platforms) and software (e.g., cybersecurity, data analytics).
    • Prediction: Increased allocations to companies like Palantir, Datadog, or C3.ai, with potential new entries in AI hardware (e.g., AMD competitors).
  • Healthcare Innovation Focus:
    • Rationale: Investments in Illumina, Teladoc, and Health Catalyst reflect optimism in genomics, telehealth, and healthcare digitization. Advances in precision medicine and regulatory support for digital health (e.g., FDA approvals) will likely sustain this trend.
    • Prediction: Expansion into emerging biotech (e.g., CRISPR Therapeutics) or health tech startups, with continued focus on telehealth scalability.
  • Consumer Discretionary Resilience:
    • Rationale: Strong positions in Carnival, Airbnb, and Wynn Resorts indicate confidence in consumer spending, particularly in travel/leisure. As inflation moderates and disposable income stabilizes, these sectors may see sustained growth.
    • Prediction: Selective additions in luxury retail (e.g., LVMH) or experiential consumer sectors (e.g., Live Nation), balancing cyclical risks.
  • Reduced Financials Exposure:
    • Rationale: The fund reduced Financials exposure in 2024-2025 as interest rates stabilized. Regional banks face ongoing challenges (e.g., commercial real estate exposure), reducing their attractiveness.
    • Prediction: Shift toward fintech (e.g., Block, SoFi) or global financials (e.g., JPMorgan Chase) to diversify away from regional bank risks.
  • Energy and Materials as Tactical Hedges:
    • Rationale: The fund’s commodity holdings (IAMGOLD, New Gold) were prominent during high-inflation periods. As energy prices stabilize and green energy transitions accelerate, the fund may pivot toward renewable energy or critical minerals (e.g., lithium, copper).
    • Prediction: Investments in clean energy (e.g., NextEra Energy) or mining companies tied to EV battery supply chains (e.g., Albemarle).
  • Macro Sensitivity:
    • Rationale: The fund’s sector rotations correlate with interest rates, inflation, and geopolitical risks. With potential economic slowdowns or geopolitical escalations in 2025-2026, the fund may increase defensive allocations (Consumer Staples, Utilities) or safe-haven assets (gold miners).
    • Prediction: Tactical increases in defensive stocks or gold-related investments (e.g., Barrick Gold) if macro risks intensify.
Key Insight: The fund is likely to deepen its focus on AI-driven Tech and Healthcare innovation, maintain Consumer Discretionary exposure, and reduce Financials while selectively hedging with Energy/Materials. Defensive allocations may increase if macro risks (e.g., recession, geopolitical tensions) escalate.
Limitations and Notes
  • Data Limitations: The Excel file lacks explicit sector classifications, requiring manual categorization based on company names. Quarterly dates (columns 44926 to 45838) were inferred as 2022-12-31 to 2025-06-30, but exact mappings were not provided. Market values were assumed to be in USD, but units were not specified.
  • Macro Context: Without real-time macro data (e.g., exact interest rate changes, geopolitical events), correlations were inferred based on general knowledge of 2022-2025 trends (e.g., Fed rate hikes, AI boom).
  • Berkshire Comparison: Lacking Berkshire’s 13F-HR data, the comparison relies on general knowledge of its portfolio and philosophy, which may not capture recent shifts.
  • Suggestions for Enhancement: Access to sector metadata, precise quarterly dates, and macroeconomic indicators (e.g., CPI, Fed funds rate) would improve accuracy. Web searches or real-time 13F-HR data for Berkshire could refine the comparative analysis.
ConclusionThe hedge fund’s portfolio is actively managed, growth-oriented, and diversified, with a strong focus on Technology (AI, cloud), Financials, and Consumer Discretionary. Strategic shifts reflect macro sensitivity, rotating into Financials and Energy during high-inflation periods (2022-2023) and toward Tech and Healthcare as growth opportunities emerged (2024-2025). Compared to Berkshire Hathaway, the fund is more dynamic and risk-tolerant, emphasizing emerging themes (AI, digital health) over stable value investments. Risk management is robust, with broad diversification and a moderate defensive stock ratio. Looking forward, the fund is likely to deepen AI and Healthcare investments, maintain consumer exposure, and adjust allocations based on macro risks, balancing growth and defensive strategies.If you require further analysis (e.g., specific stock performance, deeper macro correlations, or image/chart generation), please let me know!