13F-HR with Numerai GP LLC reporting date 2025/06/30 published.

you can use my short program analysis 11 quarters of 13F-HR (reporting date 2022/12/31 to 2025/06/30) in the Excel file. For a deeper dive into the 11-quarter trend, refer to the Excel dataset and Jupyter notebook analysis available on GitHub.


History 13F-HR in the Excel file


Analysis_Numerai_GP.ipynb


AUM

To reiterate, only long positions are reported on Form 13F-HR. Short positions are not reported.

     Date         AUM (billion dollars)
2022-12-31 $0.15
2023-03-31 $0.30
2023-06-30 $0.49
2023-09-30 $0.30
2023-12-31 $0.28
2024-03-31 $0.23
2024-06-30 $0.28
2024-09-30 $0.38
2024-12-31 $0.37
2025-03-31 $0.53
2025-06-30 $0.69 

This quarter’s AUM of $0.69 billion is outlier, continuing the trend from last quarter.

As highlighted in the recent buyback announcement, the Numerai hedge fund appears to be generating solid profits.

Number of holdings

Until the previous quarter, the number of holdings had been generally increasing, but this quarter marks the first time it has declined.
Date HOLDINGS
2022-12 111
2023-03 156
2023-06 159
2023-09 219
2023-12 232
2024-03 250
2024-06 311
2024-09 345
2024-12 389
2025-03 490
2025-06 438

Position Size

Large positions appear to have continued their upward trend from the previous period. 

Previous quarter


Current quarter



However, the situation as of June 30, 2025 differs from that of June 30, 2023.

Metric June 30, 2025 June 30, 2023 Change / Insight
AUM (Long Positions) $0.69B $0.49B ▲ Increased by $0.20B (+40.8%)
Number of Holdings 438 159 ▲ Significantly diversified
Average Position Size $1,584,707 $3,084,894 ▼ Decreased by ~49%
Largest Holding WYNDHAM HOTELS & RESORTS INC DRAFTKINGS INC ◼ Shift in top conviction
Value of Largest Holding $10,578,009 $10,546,802 ≒ Nearly unchanged
Share of Portfolio (Top Holding) 1.52% 2.15% ▼ Reduced concentration
 
  • AUM Growth: The fund's long exposure grew by over 40% in two years, suggesting increased capital inflow or bullish positioning.
  • Diversification Surge: Holdings nearly tripled, indicating a strategic shift toward broader exposure and reduced single-name risk.
  • Position Size Compression: Average position size dropped sharply, consistent with the diversification trend.
  • Top Holding Stability: The dollar value of the largest holding remained stable, but its portfolio weight declined, reflecting dilution from overall AUM growth.
 The Numerai team seems to remain committed to building a portfolio characterized by diversified holdings and a greater number of smaller positions.


In Conclusion
  • The June 30, 2025 13F-HR filing reveals a continued expansion in Numerai’s long exposure, with AUM reaching an all-time high of $0.69B. While the fund’s largest position remains stable in dollar terms, its relative weight has declined—reflecting broader diversification and a deliberate shift toward smaller, distributed bets.
  • Compared to two years prior, Numerai has nearly tripled its number of holdings while halving its average position size. This structural evolution suggests a strategic preference for breadth over concentration, possibly in response to market volatility or internal optimization.
  • Despite a slight pullback in the number of holdings this quarter, the overall trajectory remains clear: Numerai is scaling with discipline, balancing growth with risk dispersion. The recent buyback announcement further supports the view that the fund is operating from a position of strength.
  • The reduction in holdings this quarter appears to be a temporary fluctuation. However, should Numerai continue expanding its long exposure over the next two quarters while further reducing the number of holdings, it could indicate a meaningful strategic shift within the hedge fund.