This is an article related to Decentralized AI Day (Tokyo).


🔹 Event materials
🔹 My presentation: Numerai as Decentralized AI: Insights from 13F-HR and Operational Costs
  Slides (EN/JP)
 - From page 1: English version, Q&A summary, and materials not presented at the event
 - From page 60: Materials presented at the event

  Video (JP)


I have rarely thought of Numerai in the context of being a DeAI. Instead, I have approached it primarily as a prediction competition, akin to Kaggle. 
However, examining the 13F-HR, which discloses a portion of Numerai's output, I noticed some unique and intriguing characteristics. To delve deeper into Numerai's output and gain a clearer understanding of how it functions as a DeAI, I decided to compile the 13F-HR form.

AUM and Holdings

          Date                AUM ($1B)    Holdings
2022/12/31   $0.15               111
2023/3/31     $0.30               156
2023/6/30     $0.49               159
2023/9/30     $0.30               219
2023/12/31  $0.28               232
2024/3/31     $0.23              250
2024/6/30     $0.28              311
2024/9/30     $0.38              345
2024/12/31   $0.37             389


The correlation between AUM and Holdings over the entire period is 0.288, which is not very high. It seems that Holdings do not increase or decrease in line with the changes in AUM.
The Numerai team appears to be increasing holdings independently of AUM to diversify the portfolio.

Position Size

Next, I created boxplot charts for the position sizes in each 13F-HR.

When compared to firms like Citadel, I expected Numerai's position sizes to demonstrate a similar level of uniformity. However, the initial 13F-HR data presents a surprising deviation, with a notably higher occurrence of upper outliers than anticipated.

From  Hedge Follow 2024Q4



https://hedgefollow.com/funds/Numerai+GP+LLC



I created a histogram of position sizes from December 31, 2022, to December 31, 2024.


Looking at this graph over time, I can see the following:
ï½¥From the early 13F-HR, it can be seen that there was variation in position size.
ï½¥The recent 13F-HR reveals a decrease in position size outliers, indicating a trend towards holding a greater number of smaller positions.

From 2022-03-31 to 2023-06-30

2024-09-30 and 2024-12-31

In conclusion

ï½¥The correlation between AUM (Assets Under Management) and the number of holdings is relatively low. Numerai seems to have intentionally tried to increase the number of holdings.
ï½¥The diversification of holdings has progressed, showing a tendency to hold a greater number of smaller positions. 

If DeAI as Numerai's entity aimed to construct a portfolio with diversified holdings and a larger number of smaller positions, then the data and changes to staking rules implemented so far can be considered effective.