Analysis of Numerai AUM Reporting Date 2024/09/30

Analysis of Numerai AUM Reporting Date 2024/09/30

13F-HR with Numerai GP LLC reporting date 2024/09/30 published.

You can use the AUM of Numerai GP LLC from SEC site 13F-HR primary_doc.xml.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1668527/000121465924019138/primary_doc.xml

And you can use my short program analysis 8 quarters of 13F-HR (reporting date 2022/12/31 to 2024/09/30) in the Excel file.

AUM

Numerai AUM Chart

To reiterate, only long positions are reported on Form 13F-HR. Short positions are not reported. I can't figure out the true total assets under management of Numerai GP LLC including short positions.

File|13F: Frequently Asked Questions on Form 13F filing (file13f.com)

While I understand that the sample size is still small, I have plotted the AUM (Assets Under Management) in a box plot.

Numerai AUM Box Plot

Date & AUM

2022-12-31 - $146,573,876 (Low Outlier)

2023-03-31 - $298,912,467

2023-06-30 - $490,498,077 (High Outlier)

2023-09-30 - $300,843,187

2023-12-31 - $282,465,844

2024-03-31 - $231,559,353

2024-06-30 - $275,042,324

2024-09-30 - $375,057,732 (New!!)

The $146.5 million on December 31, 2022, and the $490.5 million on June 30, 2023, remain outliers, as they were in the previous analysis.

Analysis of Numerai AUM reporting date 2024/06/30

It appears that Numerai's AUM (long position size) has been steadily increasing since March 31, 2024.

The $490.5 million AUM figure recorded on 30 June 2023 is somewhat unusual. It would seem that there was a significant increase in investment due to high expectations among investors, but this was followed by a sharp decline on 30 September 2023 as a result of disappointment.

In Conclusion

  • The $490.5 million AUM figure recorded on 30 June 2023 is a bubble.
  • The investors' assessment of Numerai has become more appropriate. I think that Numerai's AUM will steadily increase after March 31, 2024.

I'll keep adding my analysis to my blog, bit by bit.