The Form 13F-HR filing of Numerai GP LLC, dated December 31, 2025, has been published.

You can use my short program analysis 13 quarters of 13F-HR (reporting date 2022/12/31 to 2025/12/31) in the Excel file. For a deeper dive into the 13-quarter trend, refer to the Excel dataset and Jupyter notebook analysis available on GitHub.

History 13F-HR in the Excel file



The value of long positions (AUM from 13F)

To reiterate, only long positions are reported on Form 13F-HR. Short positions are not reported.

 Date               Long positions (billion dollars)
2022-12-31 $0.15
2023-03-31 $0.30
2023-06-30 $0.49
2023-09-30 $0.30
2023-12-31 $0.28
2024-03-31 $0.23
2024-06-30 $0.28
2024-09-30 $0.38
2024-12-31 $0.37
2025-03-31 $0.53
2025-06-30 $0.69 
2025-09-30 $0.71
2025-12-31 $0.83

This quarter’s long positions amount to $0.83 billion. The long positions of $0.83 billion represent the largest value reported in past 13F-HR filings, but it is not an outlier. From 2024 onward, Numerai GP LLC’s disclosed long positions have expanded in a fairly steady, stair-step pattern.


Number of holdings

In the current quarter, the number of holdings has continued to rise.


Date  HOLDINGS
2022-12 111
2023-03 156
2023-06 159
2023-09 219
2023-12 232
2024-03 250
2024-06 311
2024-09 345
2024-12 389
2025-03 490
2025-06 438
2025-09 546
2025-12 608

Position Size

Portfolio adjustments appear to have advanced further compared to the previous quarter. This is particularly noticeable in the shift toward smaller position sizes, as illustrated in the chart, where the number of larger positions has declined and the distribution now shows a clearer concentration in the lower size ranges.




In Conclusion

Although the 13F-HR report is limited to U.S. market securities and only discloses long positions, I think the following insights can still be inferred.

・JPMorgan Securities’ investment appears to have started exerting an influence on the value of Numerai hedge fund’s long positions.

26 Aug 2025 
Even so, it remains unclear how much of the up‑to‑$500 million capacity JPMorgan has actually deployed. Their allocation could be partial, phased, or still in the early stages, and the fund’s public filings do not provide enough detail to determine the exact amount invested.
JPMorgan’s activity also extends far beyond what is visible in the 13F‑HR. The filing only captures U.S. long equity positions, while JPMorgan invests across short positions and non‑U.S. markets, none of which appear in the report. As a result, the 13F‑HR alone cannot fully quantify the impact of JPMorgan’s capital on Numerai’s overall portfolio.
Even with these limitations, the increase in Numerai’s long positions from Q3 to Q4 suggests that JPMorgan’s investment is already beginning to shape the fund’s positioning. Given the timing and the scale of the capacity secured, interpreting this shift as an early sign of JPMorgan’s influence on Numerai’s hedge fund seems reasonable to me.

・The initiative to maintain a portfolio strategy centered on diversified holdings and numerous smaller positions appears to have remained consistent since 2024. 




Extra: Having a Generative AI Break Down a Portfolio Built by Decentralized AI

I had Gork analyze the History 13F-HR, which I converted into a CSV file from the Excel file.

Prompt

-This CSV file summarizes hedge fund 13F-HR filings.
-The columns are as follows:
･nameOfIssuer: Company name of the Long Position
･cusip: CUSIP of the Long Position
･From "2022/12/31" to "2025/12/31": Amount of the Long Position
-The rows contain the following:
For each nameOfIssuer and cusip, the Long Position amounts from "2022/12/31" to "2025/12/31"

-Please generate a comprehensive report covering:
･Portfolio trends by sector (e.g., Tech, Healthcare, Financials)
･Strategic shifts over time and correlation with macroeconomic factors (e.g., interest rate hikes, geopolitical risks)
･Fund characteristics: growth vs. value focus, active vs. passive style, and thematic concentration (e.g., AI, renewable energy)
･Risk management: diversification level and defensive stock ratio
･Forward-looking insights: forecast future portfolio directions based on historical trends, sector rotation patterns, thematic focus, and macro sensitivity

What Gork Said

https://x.com/i/grok/share/b6fa60e91eb44cd6bae2b1113f91db9b

Comprehensive Report on Hedge Fund 13F-HR PortfolioThis report analyzes the provided 13F-HR filings data, which aggregates long positions across various issuers from Q4 2022 to Q4 2025. The portfolio reflects holdings in over 500 issuers, with sporadic entries indicating dynamic allocation. Positions are reported in dollar values, with many quarters showing zero exposure (blanks). Sectors were assigned based on standard classifications (e.g., GICS-inspired: Technology, Financials, Industrials, Consumer Cyclical, Healthcare, Basic Materials, Energy, Utilities, Consumer Defensive, Communication Services, Real Estate). Analysis draws from data patterns, including total assets under management (AUM) estimates, sector allocations, and thematic indicators. Due to the dataset's size and truncation, aggregates are estimated qualitatively from visible trends, with quantitative examples highlighted. Total AUM grows from ~$50M in Q4 2022 to over $500M by Q4 2025, suggesting scaling or inflows.Portfolio Trends by SectorThe portfolio shows a diversified mix, with heavy emphasis on Technology, Financials, Industrials, and Consumer Cyclical sectors, accounting for ~60-70% of AUM across periods. Exposure increases over time, particularly in Technology and Energy, while Basic Materials and Utilities remain stable but smaller. Below is a summarized trend table of estimated sector AUM (in $M, approximated from summing visible positions; actual totals may vary due to truncation). Percentages represent share of total portfolio AUM for that quarter.
※Table omitted for brevity.
Key Observations:
  • Technology surges from 2023 onward, driven by holdings like ARISTA NETWORKS ($5M+ in Q2 2024), ARM HOLDINGS ($0.6M in Q3 2024), and APPLE ($1.8M in Q4 2025).
  • Financials maintain steady share but absolute growth, with banks like BANK OF AMERICA ($0.4M in Q2 2025) and insurers like AFLAC ($4.9M in Q2 2025).
  • Industrials and Consumer Cyclical show consistent exposure, with spikes in auto/retail (e.g., CARVANA $2.8M in Q1 2025) and manufacturing (e.g., DEERE $0.9M in Q1 2025).
  • Energy and Basic Materials gain modestly, reflecting commodity plays (e.g., EXPAND ENERGY $8.9M in Q2 2025).
  • Smaller sectors like Utilities and Consumer Defensive provide stability.
Strategic Shifts Over Time and Correlation with Macroeconomic FactorsThe portfolio evolves from a balanced, value-oriented start in 2022-2023 to growth-heavy by 2024-2025, with 50+ new positions added annually. Key shifts:
  • 2022-2023: Heavy in cyclicals and materials (e.g., ALCOA $9M in Q1 2023, BAXTER $9M in Q1 2023), correlating with post-COVID recovery and inflation peaks. Interest rate hikes (Fed funds rate ~5% by mid-2023) prompted reductions in rate-sensitive Financials (e.g., COMERICA from $5.6M in Q2 2023 to $0.4M in Q3 2023) and shifts to defensives like Utilities (e.g., AMERICAN WATER $1.1M in Q1 2024).
  • 2023-2024: Pivot to Tech and Energy amid AI boom and energy transition. Geopolitical risks (e.g., Ukraine conflict, Middle East tensions) boosted Energy (e.g., CANADIAN NAT RES $2.5M in Q3 2024) and mining (e.g., BARRICK GOLD $0.5M in Q3 2024). Supply chain issues favored Industrials (e.g., ARISTA $5.3M in Q3 2024).
  • 2024-2025: Acceleration in growth sectors, with Tech AUM doubling y/y. Economic slowdown signals (e.g., potential recession fears in 2024) led to selective trimming in Cyclicals (e.g., CARNIVAL from $1.9M in Q4 2024 to $0.9M in Q4 2025) and additions in resilient Tech (e.g., APPLE entry in Q4 2025). Correlation with falling rates (post-2023 hikes) supported borrowing-heavy sectors like Real Estate (e.g., COLLIERS INTL $0.8M in Q1 2025).
Overall, shifts align with macro cycles: defensive during rate hikes, offensive during easing/AI hype.Fund Characteristics
  • Growth vs. Value Focus: Predominantly growth-oriented (60%+ of AUM in high-growth names like AIRBNB, CARVANA, ARISTA). Value elements appear in stable Financials/Industrials (e.g., BANK OF MONTREAL $0.9M in Q2 2024), but growth dominates with P/E-skewed Tech holdings.
  • Active vs. Passive Style: Highly active, with ~40% turnover quarterly (e.g., new entries like ARM in 2024, exits like ALCOA post-2023). No broad index mirroring; positions are selective and timed (e.g., increasing Tech amid market rallies).
  • Thematic Concentration: Strong AI focus (15-20% of Tech AUM, e.g., AMD $0.5M in Q2 2023, ARM $2.7M in Q2 2025). Renewable energy theme emerges (10% of Energy/Industrials, e.g., BLOOM ENERGY $1.7M in Q3 2024, SUNRUN $0.7M in Q4 2025). Other themes: e-commerce (AMAZON $1.5M in Q4 2025), travel recovery (CARNIVAL $3.4M in Q4 2025).
Risk Management: Diversification Level and Defensive Stock Ratio
  • Diversification: High, with 200-300 active holdings by 2025 (up from ~50 in 2022). No single position exceeds 5% of AUM (e.g., top holding EXPAND ENERGY ~2% in Q2 2025). Sector spread limits concentration risk, though Tech overweight (30%+) introduces volatility. Geographic diversification includes ~20% international (e.g., Canadian/ Bermudan issuers like CANADIAN NATL RY $7.4M in Q4 2025).
  • Defensive Stock Ratio: ~15-20% of AUM in defensives (Utilities + Consumer Defensive + select Healthcare). Ratio dips to 15% in growth-heavy 2024 but rises to 20% in 2025 (e.g., ARCHER DANIELS $1.5M in Q4 2023, BLACK HILLS $1M in Q4 2023). This buffers against downturns, as seen in stable Utilities amid 2023 volatility.
Forward-Looking Insights: Forecast Future Portfolio DirectionsBased on historical trends (growth tilt, sector rotation from cyclicals to tech/energy), thematic focus (AI/renewables), and macro sensitivity (rate/geopolitical responses), the portfolio may evolve as follows:
  • Historical Trends & Sector Rotation: Expect continued Tech rotation (35%+ AUM by 2026), cycling out of Cyclicals if consumer spending slows. If inflation rebounds, increase Materials/Energy (to 10-15%).
  • Thematic Focus: AI concentration could rise to 25% with more semiconductor plays (e.g., expanding NVIDIA analogs like AMD). Renewables may double to 15% amid ESG pushes and energy policies (e.g., adding solar like SUNRUN).
  • Macro Sensitivity: In a low-rate environment (post-2025 easing), favor Financials and Real Estate. Geopolitical risks (e.g., energy supply disruptions) could boost defensive Energy/Commodities. Recession signals might push defensive ratio to 25%, with Utilities/Healthcare adds.
  • Overall Forecast: AUM growth to $600M+ in 2026, with active shifts toward AI-driven Tech and sustainable Energy. Monitor for value rebalancing if growth valuations peak. Potential new themes: EVs (e.g., expanding CARVANA) or biotech (e.g., more DEXCOM-like holdings).