This is an article related to Decentralized AI Day (Tokyo).

Numerai seems to be aiming for diversification.
However, is Numerai's approach properly maintaining a balance between diversification and concentrated investment? Or is it aiming to achieve the realization of a stable hedge fund through diversification?

Performance of Outlier Positions with Large Allocations

If outlier positions with large allocations perform well, it might suggest that concentrated investment is working effectively.

The 13F-HR is a list of stocks held by institutional investors as of the end of the quarter.
The 13F-HR reflects the holdings at the end of the quarter, serving merely as a snapshot of that moment. Additionally, there may be stocks that were sold after the end of the following quarter.

The following is a list of the top 5 stocks with large position sizes that were not reported in the 13F-HR as of June 30, 2024, and December 31, 2024, but were reported only in the 13F-HR as of September 30, 2024.
In other words, the following 5 stocks were likely bought between July 1, 2024, and September 30, 2024, and sold between October 1, 2024, and December 31, 2024.

If the stock prices of the following 5 stocks show an upward trend, it can be inferred that the Numerai team made a good concentrated investment.

Name Of Issuer CUSIP Position Size 2024/9/30
PACCAR INC 693718108 $4,405,371
PERFORMANCE FOOD GROUP CO 71377A103 $3,239,267
EMERSON ELEC CO 291011104 $3,106,874
CLEAR SECURE INC 18467V109 $2,056,470
ELASTIC N V N14506104 $1,246,429

I created graphs showing the price trends of the five stocks above.

The starting point of the red arrow represents the best buying opportunity, which is the lowest stock price between July 1, 2024, and September 30, 2024.
The ending point of the red arrow represents the best selling opportunity, which is the highest stock price between October 31, 2024, and December 31, 2024.



Thoughts

Copilot said: The starting point of the red arrow

･These are merely sample stocks, but to me, it seemed like a significant position was in an upward trend.

･However, as indicated by the red arrows, it cannot be confirmed whether the trades were executed at the optimal timing. Based on the information from the 13F-HR, it cannot be asserted that Numerai executed trades at the best timing and effectively pursued a concentrated investment strategy.