Analysis of Numerai AUM Reporting Date 2024/06/30
You can see the AUM of Numerai GP LLC from SEC site 13F-HR primary_doc.xml.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1668527/000121465924014683/xslForm13F_X02/primary_doc.xml
And you can use my short program analysis 7 quarters of 13F-HR (reporting date 2022/12/31 to 2024/06/30) in the Excel file.
AUM
To reiterate, only long positions are reported on Form 13F-HR. Short positions are not reported. I can't figure out the true total assets under management of Numerai GP LLC including short positions.
File|13F: Frequently Asked Questions on Form 13F filing (file13f.com)
What are designated 13F securities?Typically, they are long positions of exchange-traded stocks, shares of closed-end investment companies, shares of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), certain convertible debt securities equity options, and warrants. Open-end investment companies (mutual funds) are not eligible and do not need to be reported.
Here is the applicable list of securities: https://www.sec.gov/divisions/investment/13flists.htm
I understand that the sample size is small, but I have plotted the AUM in a box plot.
Date & AUM
2022-12-31 - $146,573,876.00
2023-03-31 - $298,912,467.00
2023-06-30 - $490,498,077.00
2023-09-30 - $300,843,187.00
2023-12-31 - $282,465,844.00
2024-03-31 - $231,559,353.00
2024-06-30 - $275,042,324.00
The $146.5 million on 2022-12-31 and the $490.5 million on 2023-06-30 are outliers.
I would assume that $146.5 million on 2022-12-31 was when the fund was looking for investors.
On the other hand, I have no idea about sudden increase and decrease in long positions around 2023-06-30.
Effect of Market Conditions?
S&P 500 on 2023-04 started $4,102.20, on 2023-06 ended $4,450.38, Up 8%. Basically, it was on an upward trend.
From 2023-07 to 2023-09, The highest was $4,607.07, on 2023-09 closed $4,288.05, Down 7%. The rise from 2023-04 to 2023-06 may have been lost.
$298.9 million on 2023-03-31, $300.8 million on 2023-09-30, they were almost the same size. But I think the volatility of AUM is too high compared to the volatility of the market.
Impact of Investor Investment and Reduction?
I don't think Numerai suddenly increased its long position and decreased its short position around 2023-06-30.
I believe that the impact of investor action is a more logical reason. I think the hypothesis that Numerai suddenly changed its strategy and strongly influenced by the market are not reasonable.
In Conclusion
- In the early days, investor funding for Numerai may have been shaky.
- Numerai's AUM (long position size) will probably stabilize around $300M for a while.
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