You can see the AUM of Numerai GP LLC from SEC site 13F-HR primary_doc.xml.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1668527/000121465924014683/xslForm13F_X02/primary_doc.xml

And you can use my short program analysis 7 quarters of 13F-HR (reporting date 2022/12/31 to 2024/06/30) in the Excel file.

Analysis_Numerai_GP.ipynb

13F-HR in the Excel file


AUM


To reiterate, only long positions are reported on Form 13F-HR. Short positions are not reported. I can't figure out the true total assets under management of Numerai GP LLC including short positions.



What are designated 13F securities?

Typically, they are long positions of exchange-traded stocks, shares of closed-end investment companies, shares of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), certain convertible debt securities equity options, and warrants. Open-end investment companies (mutual funds) are not eligible and do not need to be reported.
Here is the applicable list of securities: https://www.sec.gov/divisions/investment/13flists.htm


I understand that the sample size is small, but I have plotted the AUM in a box plot.


Date               AUM
2022-12-31    $146,573,876.00
2023-03-31    $298,912,467.00
2023-06-30    $490,498,077.00
2023-09-30    $300,843,187.00
2023-12-31    $282,465,844.00
2024-03-31    $231,559,353.00
2024-06-30    $275,042,324.00

The $146.5 million on 2022-12-31 and the $490.5 million on 2023-06-30 are outliers.

I would assume that $146.5 million on 2022-12-31 was when the fund was looking for investors.

On the other hand, I have no idea about sudden increase and decrease in long positions around 2023-06-30.

Effect of Market Conditions?

S&P 500 on 2023-04 started $4,102.20, on 2023-06 ended $4,450.38, Up 8%.
Basically, it was on an upward trend.
From 2023-07 to 2023-09, The highest was $4,607.07, on 2023-09 closed $4,288.05, Down 7%.
The rise from 2023-04 to 2023-06 may have been lost.

$298.9 million on 2023-03-31, $300.8 million on 2023-09-30, they were almost the same size.

But I think the volatility of AUM is too high compared to the volatility of the market.

S&P 500 (^GSPC) from 2023/04 to 2023/09


Impact of investor investment and reduction?

I don't think Numerai suddenly increased its long position and decreased its short position around 2023-06-30.

I believe that the impact of investor action is more logical reason.

I think the hypothesis that Numerai suddenly changed its strategy and strongly influenced by the market are not reasonable.

In Conclusion

･In the early days, investor funding for Numerai may have been shaky.
･Numerai's AUM(long position size) will probably stabilize around $300M for a while.